The
New
Hampshire
primary
is
the
first
of a
number
of
state-wide
political
party
primary
elections
held
in
the
United
States
every
four
years,
as
part
of
the
process
of
choosing
the
Democratic
and
Republican
nominees
for
the
presidential
elections
to
be
held
the
subsequent
November.
Held
in
the
small
New
England
state
of
New
Hampshire,
it
traditionally
marks
the
opening
of
the
quadrennial
U.S.
presidential
election,
although
that
status
was
threatened
in
2007,
as
both
the
Republican
and
Democratic
National
Committees
moved
to
give
more
populous
states
a
bigger
influence
in
the
presidential
race.
[1]
Several
states
also
sought
to
move
up
the
dates
of
their
2008
primaries
in
order
to
have
more
influence
and
dilute
the
power
of
the
New
Hampshire
primary.
[2]
Originally
held
in
March,
its
date
has
been
moved
up
repeatedly
to
maintain
New
Hampshire's
first-in-the-nation
status
in
the
face
of
ever-earlier
primaries
in
other
states.
The
2008
primary
will
be
held
January
8.
Since
1952,
the
primary
has
been
a
major
testing
ground
for
candidates
for
the
Republican
and
Democratic
nominations.
Candidates
who
do
poorly
usually
drop
out,
while
lesser-known,
under
funded
candidates
who
do
well
suddenly
become
contenders,
gaining
huge
amounts
of
media
attention
and
money.
The
media
gives
New
Hampshire
-
and
Iowa,
since
1972
the
first
state
to
hold
a
party
caucus,
usually
a
week
before
the
New
Hampshire
primary
-
about
half
of
all
the
attention
paid
to
all
states
in
the
primary
process,
magnifying
the
state's
decision
power.[3]
This
has
spurred
repeated
efforts
by
other
states
to
try
to
attain
the
status
of
being
the
first
primary
in
the
nation.[4]
It
is
not
a
closed
primary,
in
which
votes
can
be
cast
in a
party
primary
only
by
people
registered
with
that
party.
New
Hampshire
Independents
-
people
not
registered
with
any
party
-
can
vote
in
either
party
primary.
However,
it
does
not
meet
a
common
definition
of
an
open
primary,
because
people
registered
as
Republican
or
Democrat
on
voting
day
cannot
cast
ballots
in
the
primary
of
the
other
party.
[1]
Significance
Since
1977,
New
Hampshire
law
has
stated
that
its
primary
is
to
be
the
first
in
the
nation
(it
had
been
the
first
by
tradition
since
1920
[5]).
As a
result,
the
state
has
had
to
move
its
primary
earlier
in
the
year
to
remain
the
first.
The
primary
has
been
held
on
the
following
dates:
1952-1968,
second
Tuesday
in
March;
1972,
first
Tuesday
in
March;
1976-1984,
fourth
Tuesday
in
February;
1988-1996,
third
Tuesday
in
February;
2000,
first
Tuesday
in
February
(February
1);
2004,
fourth
Tuesday
in
January
(January
27).
The
shifts
have
been
to
compete
with
earlier
primaries
in
other
states.
The
primary
date
for
2008
is
no
exception
to
the
trend;
it
will
be
on
January
8,
the
second
Tuesday
in
January.
Before
the
less-binding
Iowa
caucus
first
received
national
attention
in
the
1970s
(Republicans
began
caucusing
in
Iowa
in
1976),
the
New
Hampshire
primary
was
the
first
binding
indication
of
which
presidential
candidate
would
receive
the
party
nomination.
In
defence
of
their
primary,
voters
of
New
Hampshire
have
tended
to
downplay
the
importance
of
the
Iowa
caucus.
"The
people
of
Iowa
pick
corn,
the
people
of
New
Hampshire
pick
presidents,"
said
then-Governor
John
H.
Sununu
in
1988.[6]
Since
then,
the
primary
has
been
considered
an
early
measurement
of
the
national
attitude
toward
the
candidates
for
nomination.
Unlike
a
caucus,
the
primary
measures
the
number
of
votes
each
candidate
received
directly,
rather
than
through
precinct
delegates.
The
fact
that
the
primary
is
based
on
the
popular
vote
means
that
it
gives
lesser-known
candidates
a
chance
to
pull
ahead.
Unlike
most
other
states,
New
Hampshire
permits
independents,
not
just
registered
party
members,
to
vote
in a
party's
primary.
New
Hampshire's
status
as
the
first
in
the
nation
is
somewhat
controversial
among
Democrats
because
the
ethnic
makeup
of
the
state
is
not
diverse
and
thus
not
representative
of
the
country's
voters.
This
is
shown
in
the
2000
Census
data,
with
the
ratio
of
minority
residents
being
six
times
smaller
than
the
national
average
(New
Hampshire
is
96%
non-Hispanic
white,
versus
75%
nationally).
Politically
however,
the
state
does
offer
a
wide
sampling
of
different
types
of
voters.
Although
it
is a
New
England
state,
it
is
not
as
liberal
as
some
of
its
neighbours.
For
example,
according
to
one
exit
poll,
of
those
who
participated
in
the
2004
Democratic
Primary,
4-in-10
voters
were
independents,
and
just
over
50%
said
they
considered
themselves
"liberal."
Additionally,
as
of
2002,
25.6%
of
New
Hampshire
residents
are
registered
Democrats
and
36.7%
are
Republicans,
with
37.7%
of
New
Hampshire
voters
registered
as
"undeclared"
independents.
This
plurality
of
independents
is a
major
reason
why
New
Hampshire
is
considered
a
swing
state
in
general
U.S.
presidential
elections.
Recently,
media
expectations
for
the
New
Hampshire
primary
have
come
to
be
almost
as
important
as
the
results
themselves;
meeting
or
beating
expectations
can
provide
a
candidate
with
national
attention,
often
leading
to
an
infusion
of
donations
to a
campaign
that
has
spent
most
of
its
reserves.
For
example,
in
1992,
Bill
Clinton,
although
he
did
not
win,
did
surprisingly
well,
with
his
team
dubbing
him
the
"Comeback
Kid";
the
extra
media
attention
helped
drive
him
to
victory
in
later
primaries.
New
Hampshire's
political
importance
as
the
first
in
the
nation
primary
state
is
highlighted
in
the
documentary
film
Winning
New
Hampshire.
The
film
focuses
on
John
Kerry's
comeback
in
2004
and
the
decisive
effect
of
the
New
Hampshire
Primary
on
the
Presidential
selection
process.
History
New
Hampshire
has
held
a
presidential
primary
since
1916,
but
it
did
not
begin
to
assume
its
current
importance
until
1952,
when
Dwight
Eisenhower
demonstrated
his
broad
voter
appeal
by
defeating
Robert
A.
Taft,
"Mr.
Republican,"
who
had
been
favoured
for
the
nomination,
and
Estes
Kefauver
defeated
incumbent
President
Harry
S.
Truman,
leading
Truman
to
abandon
his
campaign
for
a
third
term.
The
other
President
to
be
forced
from
running
for
re-election
by
New
Hampshire
voters
was
Lyndon
Johnson,
who,
as a
write-in
candidate,
managed
only
a
49-42
percent
victory
over
Eugene
McCarthy
in
1968
(and
won
fewer
delegates
than
McCarthy),
and
consequently
withdrew
from
the
race.
[7]
Before
1992
the
person
elected
president
had
always
carried
the
primary,
but
Bill
Clinton
broke
the
pattern
in
1992,
as
did
George
W.
Bush
in
2000.
Moreover,
the
winner
in
New
Hampshire
has
not
always
gone
to
win
his
party's
nomination,
as
demonstrated
by
Republicans
John
McCain
in
2000
and
Pat
Buchanan
in
1996
and
Democrats
Estes
Kefauver
in
1952
and
1956
and
Paul
Tsongas
in
1992.
2008
Following
the
2004
presidential
election,
some
elements
in
the
Democratic
Party
proposed
new
primary
calendars
that
would
end
the
New
Hampshire
primary's
first
in
the
nation
status.
The
Commission
on
Presidential
Nomination
Timing
and
Scheduling
issued
a
report
at
the
end
of
2005,
recommending
adding
several
caucuses
ahead
of
New
Hampshire's
primary.
The
recommendations
have
been
approved
by
the
full
Democratic
National
Committee.
However,
New
Hampshire
state
law
requires
the
primary
to
take
place
seven
days
before
any
other
"similar
contest,"
which
state
officials
have
always
interpreted
to
mean
any
contest
other
than
Iowa's
caucus.
The
Republican
Party,
meanwhile,
has
maintained
its
support
of
the
current
primary
calendar.
New
Hampshire
officials
indicate
they
will
force
candidates
who
want
to
campaign
in
the
state
to
follow
New
Hampshire
rules
and
skip
any
primary
that
is
"too
close"
in
time.
It
is
unlikely
that
a
serious
candidate
could
risk
skipping
New
Hampshire
with
its
vast
media
attention.
Furthermore
the
penalty
for
breaking
DNC
rules
is
trivial:
the
National
Convention
can
strip
away
the
delegates
won
in
New
Hampshire--but
those
are
few.
Of
course,
the
Presidential
nominee
controls
the
convention
and
is
unlikely
to
strip
away
his
or
her
own
delegates.
Despite
many
questions
surrounding
the
2008
primary
calendar,
New
Hampshire
will
still
hold
the
earliest
primary
on
January
8,
five
days
after
the
Iowa
caucuses.
Michigan
will
hold
the
next
primary
on
January
15,
seven
days
after
New
Hampshire's,
with
South
Carolina
and
Nevada
following
shortly
afterward.
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